neděle 30. března 2014

Čermák geopolitik

#kiska #cermak

sobota 29. března 2014

Michaela Dodge na C-SPAN

Míša [mikejla] Dodge, absolventka FSS MU, která působí již několik let v konzervativní Heritage Foundation v DC, se objevila na C-SPAN. A ne že se jen objevila, ale měla pro sebe pořádný kus prostoru. C-SPAN (Cable-Satellite Public Affairs Network) je kabelová televizní stanice, která pokrývá federální instituce a témata, hlavně Kongres. Míša mluvila především o jejím hlavním zájmu - rakety, protiraketová obrana, zbraně hromadného ničení a aktuálně i Rusko.

Video doporučuji pro některé kurzy na FSS. :) Co bylo SDI? Kolik stojí protiraketová obrana? Co s Putinem? Jaký význam má deterence? … atd.

P.S.: Před rokem napsala Míša text o Obamově politice ohledně protiraketové obrany pro Global Politics.

neděle 23. března 2014

Výpisky k Ukrajině

Anne Applebaum - A need to contain Russia
Pěkně napsané. Rusko nezměníme, je na čase si přiznat, že musíme skončit s řečičkami o partnerství.

"Far more important now are the deeper strategic changes that should flow from our new understanding of Russia. We need to re-imagine NATO, to move its forces from Germany to the alliance’s eastern borders. We need to reexamine the presence of Russian money in international financial markets, given that so much “private” Russian money is in fact controlled by the state. We need to look again at our tax shelters and money-laundering laws, given that Russia uses corruption as a tool of foreign policy. Above all we need to examine the West’s energy strategy, given that Russia’s oil and gas assets are also used to manipulate European politics and politicians, and find ways to reduce our dependence."

"As one astute Russian commentator noted, the most important lines in Putin’s annexation speech this week were largely overlooked: his reference to the fifth columnists and the Western-funded Russian “traitors” who will now have to be silenced. Putin invaded Crimea because Putin needs a war. In a time of slower growth, and with a more restive middle class, he may need some more wars, too."

Charles Krauthammer - Obama’s pathetic response to Putin’s invasion of Crimea
Sžíravá kritika Obamy jako obvykle. Nepřímo nesouhlasí s Applebaum.

"After Obama’s Russian “reset,” missile-defense retreat and Syria comedown, Putin had already developed an undisguised disdain for his U.S. counterpart. Yet even he must have been amazed by this newest American flight of fantasy. Putin reclaims a 200-year-old Russian patrimony with hardly a shot and to wild applause at home — Putin’s 72 percent domestic popularity is 30 points higher than Obama’s — and America’s leaders think he needs rescue?"

"As I’ve argued here before, there are things we can do: Send the secretary of defense to Kiev tomorrow to negotiate military assistance. Renew the missile-defense agreement with Poland and the Czech Republic. Announce a new policy of major U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas. Lead Europe from the front — to impose sanctions cutting off Russian enterprises from the Western banking system."

Madeleine Albright, Jim O’Brien - The West’s obligation to Ukraine
Zdá se mi to, nebo Obamu už kritizuje i Madlenka? A v otázce vojenské podpory Ukrajiny souhlasí i s Charlesem. Silnější reakci vůči Rusku!

"First, the status of the territories Putin claims should remain disputed. ... Second, the president and U.S. allies should let Russia’s leaders and its people know that Russia would be welcome if it chooses to be a responsible member of the international order. ... It is not for us to say who governs Russia. But Putin’s authority lies in his role as arbiter among 400 so-called men of power who benefit from state-controlled banks and companies. They and he should be made to feel the price of his actions. ... Third, and most important, President Obama’s trip to Europe for the Group of Seven and the U.S.-E.U. Summit should produce a strategy for the states bordering Russia. The crux of any strategy must be to create durable economic and social ties for Ukraine and the West."

"We must recognize, however, that Ukrainians have to be able to defend themselves. While we are beginning to provide some non-lethal assistance, the president needs to reverse a previous proposal to cut funding for a program to modernize the Ukrainian military. The Ukrainian government also needs help defending against cyberattacks and help with policing, especially riot control."

Kurt Volker - Where's NATO's Strong Response to Russia's Invasion of Crimea?
S Kurtem Volkerem jsem v DC poplkal během pracovní snídaně, je to příjemný chlapík. Bývalý velvyslanec USA při NATO. Ukazuje, že NATO jaksi slábne...

"NATO held meetings of the NATO-Russia Council (March 5) and the NATO-Ukraine Commission (March 2), and hosted a visit by Ukrainian interim Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk (March 6) at the alliance headquarters. The Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council, comprising NATO and all Euro-Atlantic partners (including Russia and Ukraine) discussed the situation on March 14. … Yet all that activity is just that -- activity. Missing is strategic purpose, coordinated action (not words) and real effect."

"At Prime Minister Yatsenyuk's request, provide NATO-country advisors and trainers to assist the Ukrainian forces in defending their country."

pátek 14. března 2014

Ľubomír Majerčík: Česká republika a zločin agrese

Vedle debat o účinnosti nového občanského zákoníku od 1. ledna 2014 poněkud zapadlo, že zároveň nabyl účinnost i leta připravovaný zákon č. 104/2013 Sb., o mezinárodní justiční spolupráci ve věcech trestních. Ještě více zapadlo, že doprovodný změnový zákon propašoval do trestního zákoníku novou skutkovou podstatu – zločin agrese.

středa 12. března 2014

Legalita šmírování NSA

Zatímco na Východě bylo skandálem roku 2013 odkrytí mafiánské ságy v nejvyšších patrech čínské komunistické strany, na Západě bezpochyby získalo zlatou medaily červnové zveřejnění šmírovacích praktik americké tajné služby NSA. Práskač/whistleblower Edward Snowden vynesl spousty informací o práci americký tajných služeb, čímž odstartoval debatu na mnoha frontách - od politické debaty nad sledováním Angely Merkelové a dalších, přes mezinárodněprávní konotace špionáže až po spor o domácí legalitu sběru dat/metadat Američanů. Na jakých základech stojí šmírovací oprávnění NSA v rámci amerického práva?

Viz post na Jiném právu.

O čem píší mezinárodní právníci?

Eric Posner se rozhořčuje nad dominancí tématu lidských práv v mezinárodněprávním písemnictví:
"Everyone complains that law professors write too much about constitutional law, and not enough about areas of law that actually matter–antitrust, securities regulation, and criminal law. A similar complaint can be directed against international law scholars. On the evidence of the Westlaw database, international law scholars think that human rights deserve vastly more attention than (say) trade law or even the United Nations. In truth, human rights law is of limited practical importance in international relations, and virtually all of this literature–which nearly uniformly argues in favor of more human rights and stronger human rights institutions–will be ignored. If you want evidence that much of what academics do doesn’t matter, and that there is no mechanism for self-correction, see the graph above."
Právníci, kteří něco vědí o mezinárodním obchodním právu, asi mají lepší věci na práci, než o tom psát do právních žurnálů...

neděle 2. března 2014

Putinovo Waterloo?

Proč obsazovat autonomní proruský region s velkou ruskou základnou, když stačí počkat a politicky region v odstatě ovládnout? Nebo to není "russian style"? Nevím, ale zatím se mi nezdá, že by Putinův postup dával moc smysl. EU a USA přece můžou Putinovi zatopit. A nebo je Západ moc slabý a nejednotný na nějakou silnější reakci?

Snyder: Yet the EU might hold stronger cards than the Russians think. Russian propaganda about depraved Europe conceals an intimate relationship. Tourism in the European Union is a safety valve for a large Russian middle class that takes its cues in fashion and pretty much everything else from European culture. Much of the Russian elite has sent its children to private schools in the European Union or Switzerland. Beyond that, since no Russian of any serious means trusts the Russian financial system, wealthy Russians park their wealth in European banks. In other words, the Russian social order depends upon the Europe that Russian propaganda mocks. And beneath hypocrisy, as usual, lies vulnerability.

The European Union is by far Russia’s most important trading partner, although the reverse is not the case. … The EU relies upon Russia for natural gas and oil, ..., now might be a good time to reconsider energy policy.

Judah: Moscow is not nervous. Russia’s elites have exposed themselves in a gigantic manner – everything they hold dear is now locked up in European properties and bank accounts. Theoretically, this makes them vulnerable. The EU could, with a sudden rush of money-laundering investigations and visa bans, cut them off from their wealth. But, time and time again, they have watched European governments balk at passing anything remotely similar to the U.S. Magnitsky Act, which bars a handful of criminal-officials from entering the United States. All this has made Putin confident, very confident – confident that European elites are more concerned about making money than standing up to him.

Back in the 1980s, the USSR talked about international Marxism but no longer believed it. Brussels today, Russia believes, talks about human rights but no longer believes in it. Europe is really run by an elite with the morality of the hedge fund: Make money at all costs and move it offshore.

sobota 1. března 2014

Převrat? Nebo omyl?

Jaktože v pátek odpoledne prezident a velitel ozbrojených sil Janukovič podepsal s opozicí dohodu o vládě národní jednoty a večer utekl?

Šimečka: Doufám jen, že jednou se dozvíme, jak vypadaly Janukovyčovy poslední dny ve funkci, když si například v pátek v noci uvědomil, že dostal od Evropské unie polibek smrti. Právě ona dohoda s opozicí, do níž ho hrozbou sankcí dotlačili tři ministři zahraničí EU, spustila úprk poslanců z jeho vlastní strany do opozičního tábora. Od té doby se události valí tak rychle, až mám z toho husí kůži.

Reuters: In the meeting room at the Hotel Kiev in Friday afternoon, at the moment when attempts to end the violence were almost sunk by opposition doubts, Sikorski told the activists about 1981. He and other Solidarity leaders had over-estimated their own strength, and been defeated, he said. But they eventually prevailed by striking a compromise deal with the authorities.

Sikorski: "Yanukovych did something unheard of. After signing the agreement, he went to a meeting outside the city which seems to have been planned earlier, without appreciating the psychological impact it would have," Mr Sikorski told Polish Radio on Tuesday. "Maybe he planned his escape but he had no obligation to remove the security from the government buildings and this allowed the opposition to occupy them without firing a shot," he added.

BBC: "Once the agreement was signed, it turned the tables against Yanukovych because his supporters realised his power was waning and it was time to jump ship," Konstanty Gebert, a columnist for the leading Polish daily, Gazeta Wyborcza, told the BBC.

BBC: The political pact was signed on Friday by President Yanukovych and opposition leaders after mediation by EU foreign ministers, and approved by Ukraine's parliament. …  All but one of the 387 MPs present voted in favour, including dozens of MPs from Mr Yanukovych's own Party of Regions.

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