neděle 2. března 2014

Putinovo Waterloo?

Proč obsazovat autonomní proruský region s velkou ruskou základnou, když stačí počkat a politicky region v odstatě ovládnout? Nebo to není "russian style"? Nevím, ale zatím se mi nezdá, že by Putinův postup dával moc smysl. EU a USA přece můžou Putinovi zatopit. A nebo je Západ moc slabý a nejednotný na nějakou silnější reakci?

Snyder: Yet the EU might hold stronger cards than the Russians think. Russian propaganda about depraved Europe conceals an intimate relationship. Tourism in the European Union is a safety valve for a large Russian middle class that takes its cues in fashion and pretty much everything else from European culture. Much of the Russian elite has sent its children to private schools in the European Union or Switzerland. Beyond that, since no Russian of any serious means trusts the Russian financial system, wealthy Russians park their wealth in European banks. In other words, the Russian social order depends upon the Europe that Russian propaganda mocks. And beneath hypocrisy, as usual, lies vulnerability.

The European Union is by far Russia’s most important trading partner, although the reverse is not the case. … The EU relies upon Russia for natural gas and oil, ..., now might be a good time to reconsider energy policy.

Judah: Moscow is not nervous. Russia’s elites have exposed themselves in a gigantic manner – everything they hold dear is now locked up in European properties and bank accounts. Theoretically, this makes them vulnerable. The EU could, with a sudden rush of money-laundering investigations and visa bans, cut them off from their wealth. But, time and time again, they have watched European governments balk at passing anything remotely similar to the U.S. Magnitsky Act, which bars a handful of criminal-officials from entering the United States. All this has made Putin confident, very confident – confident that European elites are more concerned about making money than standing up to him.

Back in the 1980s, the USSR talked about international Marxism but no longer believed it. Brussels today, Russia believes, talks about human rights but no longer believes in it. Europe is really run by an elite with the morality of the hedge fund: Make money at all costs and move it offshore.

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